History Will Not Judge Trump's Presidency Kindly

I wrote an op-ed about how future historians may assess Donald Trump’s presidency. It appears at the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Cinncinnati.com site. Please take a look!

Shutting Down! How Trump Can Win (But Won’t) in November: A Playbook for Winning the 2020 Presidential Election

Is Donald J. Trump Machiavellian enough to turn off his inner voice in a desperate attempt to win the 2020 Presidential Election? Does he have the emotional intelligence to simply stop talking his way out of reelection?

For the most powerful politician in the world these questions are critical considerations. Yet, Candidate Trump is a mess. He clearly has no one around him willing to stand up and simply say, “Stop…stop now, Mr. President!”

The only way (it seems outside a Constitutional crisis over mail-in voting) to avoid defeat is to exude leadership on defeating COVID-19 through bold actions. The US ineptitude at the federal level has been legion to date with more than 4.3 million confirmed Coronavirus cases, some 150,000 people dead, and a ham-handed testing and tracing program. Time is against the president with less than 100 days before the election.

But, Trump still has options…

…To paraphrase James Carville:

“It’s the pandemic, stupid!”

Sound Like a Wartime President

The equations are straightforward right now – voters hate Trump’s response to the pandemic. They roundly disapprove of how he has handled the crisis. Trump currently trails in polls in several key battleground states (i.e. Texas, Florida, and Pennsylvania) that he must win if he hopes to emerge victorious in the Electoral College. However, a closer look at many of these surveys reveals that the results fall within the margin of error that could make them much closer than they appear on first glance.

The second half of the 2020 Presidential election equation is that people are fairly ho-hum about Joe Biden. His poll results (right now) are derived more-or-less by being the anti-Trump. Unlike his counterpart, Biden is staying relatively quiet. Less talk equals less chance that he might let loose with one of his many verbal ticks or miscues.

Let’s be realistic, though when it comes to politics. Many Americans have short-term memories. If President Trump righted the course and could realistically claim victory over COVID-19, he would probably be rewarded, despite the significant flaws and missteps made over many months.

President Trump could begin challenging his fate if he simply started speaking like a leader. Of course, as possibly the least actualized person on the planet, the counter is that he can’t do it...could never show this kind of transformation. Yet, a possible second term hangs in the balance. In an “It’s the pandemic, stupid!” world, the president of the nation leading the world in COVID-19 outbreaks must talk like a leader. His words matter, so a different kind of oratory may provide hope and inspiration for all Americans.

Shut it Down – Shut it, Shut it Down!

Bold, decisive leadership requires that President Trump do the one thing he is most dead-set against—completely shut down the country. Not only would it require him to sound presidential, but it would oblige that he act presidential.

With one courageous proclamation, Trump would immediately change the trajectory of his presidency:

“Today, following the guidance of the scientific community and my medical experts, as well as bipartisan leadership nationally, we are shutting down the nation, instituting mandatory masks in all indoor spaces and outdoors when people are unable to socially-distance, and banning nonessential interstate travel. All schools will be online for the rest of 2020, which will enable us to plan for a successful 2021.”

The scientific evidence and examples from many European and Asian nations is that by six to eight weeks of shutting down the nation, the US could flatten the virus to the point that testing and tracing could isolate and possibly squelch hotspots as they arise.

The follow-up:

“I realize that we are asking a great deal of Americans, but these critical steps are the only way that we can defeat COVID-19. After six to eight weeks, we will have a stronger nation and be fully prepared to re-launch the economy. America will also be much closer to a vaccine.”

The Outcome

While the call for shutting down the nation might seem like the last thing in the world that Trump would advocate, the move would finally demonstrate that the president is putting the nation’s concerns before his own seemingly impulsive thoughts and reactions. A total shutdown would reveal Trump as willing to place the lives of Americans foremost. One again, though, the kind of decisions that Candidate Trump must make to win the 2020 election are diametrically in opposition to what President Trump has done since the pandemic broke out.

Does he have the maturity as a leader to change course? Possible options are dropping by the day. As we hurtle toward November a chance for a Hail Mary victory are growing slimmer and slimmer.

How Trump Can Win (But Won’t) in November

A Playbook for Winning the 2020 Presidential Election, the First in a Series of Steps toward Victory, Part I

For President Donald J. Trump, the enemy is winning. Time is against him with less than 100 days before the 2020 Presidential Election. 

COVID-19 has not only overwhelmed the healthcare system nationally, but the virus—and the president’s response to the ensuing crisis—has become the central issue of the election. Victory now hinges on voters’ perception of leadership.

Deep in the midst of the global pandemic, the American people are all over the board when it comes to coping with Coronavirus. Many people are afraid and fearful that no end is in sight, while others act as if the pandemic poses no threat to them or their loved ones.

 COVID-19 has transformed most people’s day-to-day lives. As the crisis has deepened, people need a sense of hope, not unrelenting despair. Yet, desolation and misery are in heavy supply: death tolls increasing daily, hours-long waits in lines to get tested, closed businesses, unemployment, cancellation of leisure activities, the list goes on and on.

 At this point, President Trump has lost the perception war.

 Can Trump Win in November?

 Simply put, the 2020 election is nowhere near over. Many of the recent polls show presumptive Democratic nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, with a significant lead, however key battleground states are within the plus/minus polling margin of error range. And, we can never forget how wrong the pollsters were in 2016…hours into election day they still predicted a Clinton victory. What seemed ludicrous at the time was that people would not admit to exit pollsters that they had voted for Trump, essentially decimating a system used to predict election results for generations.

 Another “smell test” would be for the media to go out into the countryside in key states and look around, see things with their own eyes. I drive 50 miles across Southern and Southwestern Ohio twice a week. I have yet to see a Joe Biden placard, but there are dozens of Trump 2020 signs and flags.

 Although the media is not addressing the issue from this perspective, it seems that people responding to polls are more anti-Trump than pro-Biden. At this point, it is Trump’s repeated undermining of his own position that is turning prospective voters against him. This is not a wave of Biden hysteria, rather a show that people do not approve of Trump’s response to the pandemic, which means that if he changes course, he still has a chance at winning.

 What I am prescribing is really a series of steps that President Trump must take if he hopes to rebound with less than 100 days to the November election (and recognizing that many, many voters will vote via mail early). However—a caveat—I do not think that Trump has the wherewithal or ability to implement these strategies and tactics.

 Trump still has time to turn it around. If he doesn’t, his place in history is sealed—simply the worst president in American history—a one-term aberration. He will be viewed as the anti-Lincoln or anti-FDR, a president who when called upon to act supremely presidential and for the common good, instead turned the nation toward its basest, noxious race-baiting and Nixon-like law and order police state.

 So, this is the Trump playbook for victory…but one that he will not implement, because he does not have the emotional IQ or self-actualization to contradict his current policies or “pivot” away from what he has created to this point regarding the Coronavirus epidemic.

The Speech of a Lifetime

Immediately, President Trump should schedule a prime time presidential address. Without smirking or seeming insincere, he should begin the event while wearing a mask and while taking it off, urge all Americans to follow his lead and wear a mask at all times in public spaces where they cannot efficiently practice social distancing.

Then, after practicing the speech as if his presidency depends on it, Trump should—with all the authenticity and enthusiasm he can muster—deliver a straightforward address that tacitly acknowledges the shortcomings of the US (and his) response to the pandemic.

Step One: The Message

The COVID-19 pandemic has transformed America, our economy, our relationships with nations around the world, and is currently threatening the American way of life. This will change now!

Starting today, my administration is launching a national agenda for winning the war against the virus. We will take three critical steps:

1. I am personally leading a newly-configured Coronavirus task force. Working with the governors in each state, I will coordinate and administer a program that gets money, people, and resources to the states, particularly those hotspots hardest hit by the outbreak. While no president can give attention to just one challenge, leading the new task force will be my central focus and I will use the full power of the presidency to win this battle.

2. I am appointing Vice President Mike Pence to a new role leading a national War Production Board (WPB) with the sole focus of creating the infrastructure that we need to wipe out COVID-19 and then organize for the national distribution and implementation of a future vaccine. The WPB will work with American corporations to produce the medical supplies our health care systems need now and in the future in the US, by American companies, so that we are not reliant on foreign countries to fulfill our essential healthcare needs. America needs this kind of coordinated production now against the virus, just like we did in winning World War II.

3. I am asking Dr. Anthony Fauci to wear another hat, this time serving as America’s “COVID-19 Czar.” Fauci’s task will be to be my chief advisor on the pandemic. More importantly, with the help of federal resources and those at the state level, he will implement a reinvigorated testing and tracing campaign to identify and then contain the virus.

By winning the war against COVID-19, the United States will be able to prepare for the time when a vaccine is created and must be given to our 300-plus million citizens. And, more importantly, stopping the pandemic will enable the nation to regain its economic status, getting people back to work, and our lives to a new, post-COVID “normal.”

Toward Victory

What needs to be said again and again: people are angry and upset by President Trump’s actions (or perhaps more accurately—his inactions) during the pandemic. They are venting their frustration via disapproving his job performance and indicating that Biden would probably be a better leader during a global crisis.

In our poll-centric political games so popular on cable news channels, the score is tipped in Biden’s favor. Yet, there is no certain indication that the pro-Biden camp outweighs the anti-Trump sentiment. President Trump has not convinced enough potential voters that they should punch the lever for Candidate Trump in November.